Tuesday 20 March 2012

GOP Primaries - and the race drags on


Well the primaries of Tuesday 13th went pretty much according to expectation. There was no breakthrough for Gingrich. I wonder if the media is right to call it as a he 'breakthrough' he needed. I think his campaign is dead. If he withdraws (and he is under a lot of pressure to do so) to allow Santorum have his straight right v left fight with Romney who would benefit most? The pressure is coming from the Santorum people. But would they gain anything other than a guaranteed runner-up spot?

Even with his victories last week the gap between Santorum and Romney (253-521) widened. Romney is almost halfway there. I expect them to swap victories in Illinois (Mar 20th, Romney) & Louisiana (Mar 24th). A continuation of that trend will continue - Romney winning among the moderate elements and Santorum the more right wing South.

This is the problem for the GOP. Romney may get over the line without making any inroads in the States he will have to carry in November. He scraped by in Ohio. This doesn't augur well. So, what happens in Texas (April 29th) could be decisive. Could it end up a brokered GOP convention (foisted on Romney) where Santorum is pushed onto the ticket for Vice-President? Or is it because of that very possibility that Gingrich is still gasping for air?

Why however, have the Republicans let it come to this anyway? Are they hell bent on losing in November?



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