Sinn Fein Poll upsurge - and the spectre of a referendum

The latest opinion poll published on Sunday 26th February makes for interesting reading;

Has Sinn Fein’s day come? Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (26th February 2012)

The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (26th February 2012) points to a significant gain in Sinn Fein support relative to that party’s support levels in the previous such poll, with most of this increased support appearing to come at the expense of Fianna Fail – the combined support levels for the government parties increased by one percent relative to the last such poll on December 12 2011. On the basis of these figures, Sinn Fein could expect a significant increase in Dail seat numbers at the next general election, with the Labour Party seats predicted to fall to that party’s lowest levels in decades.  On the basis of this constituency level analysis, party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 63, Labour 11, Fianna Fail 24, Sinn Fein 44, Green Party 0, Others 24.The poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 32% (up 2%), Labour 10% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 16% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 25% (up 4%), Green Party 2% (down 1%), Independents and Others 15% (NC). Based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hondtmethod to determine which party wins the seats), while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns oberved in the February 2011 election),  On the basis of this constituency level analysis, party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 63, Labour 11, Fianna Fail 24, Sinn Fein 44, Green Party 0, Others 24.

http://politicalreform.ie/2012/02/26/has-sinn-feins-day-come-sunday-times-behaviour-attitudes-poll-26th-february-2012/#more-3220

The scenario is fairly stark. Unless the impossible happens and FG/FF coalesce (with a tiny majority) then the impossible will happen. Sinn Fein are the clear kingmakers in the above 'Dail'. So what then?

Do the maths. Something serious has to give.

Opinions anyone?

Yet it gets worse for our dear Taoiseach Edna. Now he is stuck with a referendum that absolutely none of our European partners wanted, and Edna & co. certaintly didn't want.

There are very interesting times ahead.