The Irish Referendum Campaign on the EU Fiscal Compact Treaty

The Campaign kicks off - Live debate on the forthcoming Irish Fiscal Treaty Referendum

Well the campaign officially kicked off yesterday - four and a half weeks out from the critical vote.  Minister Phil Hogan signed the referendum order and thus ended the shadow boxing. Straight out of the traps and TV3, an independent Irish broadcaster, was hosting the first live debate on the referendum tonight. It has just finished as I write. So what's the verdict?

First of all the line-ups. In the 'Yes' corner,  we had Agriculture Minister Simon Coveney TD (FG) and Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin TD, leader of the parliamentary opposition. In the 'No' corner, Joe Higgins TD,  leader of the Socialist Party and Mary Lou McDonald TD, Vice-President of Sinn Fein. The always excellent Vincent Browne (and you have admit that whether you personally like or loathe the man) was our facilitator. So, how did the protagonists fare? Does the voter understand any more about what this referendum is actually about as a result of tonight's debate? Is the voters choice any more informed? Who has done well personally?

Well insofar as that basic barometer of what these debates are supposed to be about goes- or at least what I thought these debates were supposed to be about - I have to say I am disappointed. The uninformed or uneducated among us who may have approached this open minded with to a view to finding out what all this was really about will feel a bit let down. In the early exchanges, in fairness, there was more openness as the actual mechanics under the bonnet were more the focus and some of the reasons behind the treaty were explained. Now a lot of the reasons why we are having this referendum may be as a result of knee jerk (and half assed) EU responses to the sovereign debt crisis. It may have been hurriedly put together (10 months give or take, which believe is me is fast acting for the EU) and give the impression as to have been put together on the back of an envelope by European, sorry German Chancellor Merkel, and her allies but nonetheless there is a very important debate that should be had as to the direction this treaty may take Ireland. Not purely in terms of financial issues, but also in terms of how the EU enacts and binds its members by it laws, regulations and treaties.(This last point - the EU democratic deficit - is a particular hobby horse of mine, that I have referred to on other posts, here and elsewhere. And no, it did not come up, not even once tonight.) But despite a promising start, our protagonists reverted to type and we lost sight of some of the real issues.

Once the personality clashes took over and the soundbites came into their own, the reasons got left behind in a mist and instead you would be led to believe that all of this is quite simple really. Mary Lou and Joe seemed to be telling us to vote 'No' and not let it worry us. Sure, the EU, or IMF or ECB or even the ESM we voted no to, would still give us money. If we needed it (We do). In two years (We will). But we mightn't. Confused? All sides talked alot about GDP. It was as Mary Lou, seasoned financial commentator that she is, presciently observed, an 'alphabet soup'. Don't kids eat that? They talked a lot about how the previous Fianna Fail administration had got us into this problem - Mary Lou pointed out that despite belt tightening and harsh budgets, the countries budget deficit had widened. They hammered the present Government's cutback measures and subservience to bondholders despite election promises to the contrary.

Joe Higgins was careful to refer to the treaty by it's real name -the Austerity treaty- at all times. He will win a few votes with that tactic too, mind you. He would raise money through a wealth tax. Nothing new there. Mary Lou would raid (no pun intended) the pension reserve fund. That basically, was the nuts and bolts of the 'vote no' alternative to bailouts and loans, which we would nver be able to repay anyway. Not that anyone mentioned that fact.

The 'Yes' responses and counters were fairly lightweight. Michael Martin was to me, surprisingly lightweight. Cynicism aside, I did expect a more robust stance from him, that while advocating and putting the argument for the treaty forward he would have a sprinkling of innovative reasoning that while supporting the Government, would set FF apart in some way - something which they badly, badly need before the party dies on their feet. And I know it flies in the face of what I said earlier, but he was perhaps too willing to have a cup of tea and a chat style of argument, with Mary and Joe rather than really getting into what he was there for. That is the fact, that like day and night, black and white, there is no middle ground between yes and no. There is no maybe on the ballot paper Michael.

Leave it to Simon though to get the real nasty stuff going. Firstly he reeled of an ABC (back to the alphabet soup? - Ed) of multinationals who were in favour of the treaty.Goodness knows why. The first thing the EU will do when they get full control of the purse strings is abolish that low corporate tax rate. Then the big guns - Vote no, and you'll be in for it in the next budget, he threatened - came out. Which was a repeat of what Finance Minister Michael Noonan had scared with people with earlier in the day. Which is what Fine Gael policy is on this referendum. Scare the voters. Mary Lou questioned whether she could believe her ears. It was music to mine. The campaigns only begun and the dirty stuff is flying.

So what was the verdict? Well I don't think anyone coming to this new or afresh is any better informed than when the debate begun. This is not a good thing but one that with plenty of time left one that can be forgiven. As for the respective 'Yes' and 'No' sides, I would hate to sit on the fence. They were equal however, in terms of how they failed, to properly articulate the real issues firstly, and secondly in that what they give us was old and rehashed and not terribly new or interesting(-ingly put). For me,  the No' side may have shaded it. I thought Martin was poor - indeed I am wondering why he chose to take place in this particular debate. I can see the reason why he may have seen some advantage in getting his face and name up there early but it didn't pan out that way for him. Coveney was just poor. His threats are contemptible and the Irish people will not, I hope be scared, frightened or fooled by them. Joe Higgins was OK, he is honest and his arguments though well recited to the point of almost being meaningless through their monotony, are sincerely held. Mary Lou impressed me(slightly). She has been regarded in the past as somewhat of a weak link or liabilty in the SF armoury (again, no pun intended :)) when it comes to debates and not being fully briefed or knowing (and going) off topic. In recent months, maybe even the last year, she has improved. She can nearly hold her own. She just managed it tonight.

I think overall not very many of the undecided voters (18% at the latest poll; http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0428/poll-shows-slight-narrowing-in-treaty-support.html) would have made up their minds tonight. If they did, it is thanks mainly to a poor 'Yes' showing, a moderate 'No' effort, and a foot in mouth effort by Simple Simon.

Labour Pains

The Irish Labour Party - A mythical beast whose shape and form is much disputed

I had originally intended to write a quite different piece under this heading originally - I will try to include some of it anyway. Events this week shifted my focus slightly. I am actually caught now trying to express points that, superficially at least, fit together, but when I am finished here may seem incomplete and the reader will feel like they got all dressed up but when they get there the party wasn't all that. So, bear with me. I am just skimming across something I have strong opinions on, but little time to fully expound them now. Think of it as only an opening statement.

James Connolly, facing Liberty Hall , Dublin

At their Ard Fheis (think 'party conference, convention etc.) last weekend, the Labour Party were celebrating their centenary - 100 years since figures revered by all throughout this country, men whose ideals were later sold out,  like Big Jim Larkin, James Connolly and William O'Brien founded the the Irish Labour Party.  And celebrate they did. But how dare they. Connolly famously said 'the cause of Labour is the cause of Ireland and the cause of Ireland is the cause of Labour'. In 100 years though, the party he co-founded could not have become more far removed from their Labour roots, more disconnected from the realities in Ireland for the 'labour' classes than could ever be imagined. That those who hold the reins of power within the party itself, are selfish, power hungry journeymen ( Gilmore and Rabbitte for example, an odyssey from Official Sinn Fein to Labour via the Worker's Party and Democratic Left ) is not the only reason. The rank and file members cannot simply blame them when they collapse at the polls as soon as the people get a chance to give them a good kicking. And kick them they will. No, because you see this disease of the Irish Labour has been there since 1918 or thereabouts. It has manifest itself at suitable intervals over the intervening years. And don't even start me on the 'Unions'.Then the wolves put the sheepswool back on until enough people forgive or forget and vote them back into power. Where they inevitably expose themselves for the unprincipled, bought, power hungry, ideology less, shower that they are. Think Dick Spring, 1992. Headline election promise - Get Fianna Fail out. Post election - Spring is talking about rotating the Office of Taoiseach (power hungry) as he dives under the covers with FF. Needless to say the 'Spring Tide' went out very, very fast indeed. 

Okay - this is where I am going to take a sudden turn off the road. Enough with the brief history lesson. There is so much more to the above - how it all went wrong and how it all stayed wrong - I will get back to that and treat it on it's own another day. I want to just talk briefly about something that is going on now, that I just touched on above.

Joan Burton doesn't particularly like Eamon Gilmore. Not that I would blame her for that. In recent times this barely concealed contempt for the smug and arrogant Tanaiste has manifested itself in the type of sniping attacks on the Government that generally end in one of two ways;

1. The Minister is sacked (Burton is the Social Protection boss), Gilmore gets the party support and Burton faces backbench limbo.

2. The Minister is sacked but with party support leads a heave against Gilmore. Which could in turn go a number of ways.

Anyway, that's not specifically what I am into here. The question I have is this;

-Has Burton developed a social conscience?

Of course not. Don't be silly.

Labour rejected (with Burton as Finance spokesperson) the bank guarantee, the bailout (remember Labour's way or Frankfurt's way? or some such nonsense). Burn the bondholders etc. All these things disappeared as soon as the prospect of power became a reality. It was all hot air.

Like Burton now. All hot air. No social conscience. But not liking Gilmore (Gilmore doesn't like her either - that's why he made her director of elections for the upcoming EU Fiscal Treaty referendum, a Machiavellian touch) and seeing the way the wind was blowing (it's a gale actually - think household charges, promissory notes, water charges, Anglo etc.) Burton guessed that suddenly realising that it is not such a fair proposal to cut the One-parent family scheme when children reach age 7 (or some such savagery) and go on a solo run (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0418/joan-burton-unsure-of-lone-parent-cut-off-point.html) would be a good idea. Gather support in the party. And publicly. Maybe she thinks she might even get that Tanaiste gig herself (see 2 above).

But no, it's all posturing, all political football. The lone-parents being the football this week. Typical of their history isn't? A microcosm of it don't ya think?

-Has Burton developed a social conscience?

Of course not. Don't be silly.

That's it for now. But I'm not finished with the Labour Party. I will have more to tell you about them. I will tell you about them and their history and about the grubby characters past and present who have disgraced the ideals of the founders, those who worked and struggled in those difficult early years and those they worked and struggled for. I will tell you about them and I won't be sparing.

The cause of Labour is the cause of Ireland?

Not in this incarnation.

The cause of the Labour is THEMSELVES.

The phoney war is over - It's Obama versus Romney

So that's it then. It had become inevitable and following the defeats in Wisconsin, Maryland and Washington D.C coupled with the prospect of losing the primary in his home state of Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum suspended his campaign for the Republican Presidential nomination.

So, with the phoney war out of the way the real stuff begins. The Obama campaign has been quietly tuning up for the start of the campaign proper for some time. Expect them to start hitting hard and hitting often. There will be an early onslaught on Romney to put him on the back foot from the off. The Romney campaign will have to be ready. They will not have time to draw breath. The primary has been draining in many ways - time wise, when the fight has been local rather than with Obama, and of course resources and money.

I will of course be following all the ins and outs all the way through to November. I am looking forward to it - I hope you are too.


The general election campaign begins now in earnest - it's 29 weeks from next Tuesday to polling. 

The Final Report of the Mahon Tribunal

The Final Report of the Tribunal of Inquiry into Certain Planning Matters and Payments
The full text of the final report of the Mahon Tribunal is available for download from the link below.

http://www.planningtribunal.ie/images/finalReport.pdf

The Irish Referendum on the EU Fiscal Compact Treaty - Vote 'NO'

Irish Referendum on the EU Fiscal Compact Treaty 

May 31^st 2012

The Irish Government has announced that the referendum to amend the Constitution to allow the State to ratify the EU Fiscal Compact Treaty (formally, the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union; also called the Fiscal Stability Treaty) will be held on May 31^st.

The battle-lines were drawn as soon as the Government received the AG's advice of the necessity to hold a referendum. With the announcement of the date the campaign will begin in earnest. So, what's it all about?

In it's simplest terms this Treaty provides a legislative basis to give the EU overarching control of the constituent economies of the eurozone area. 


Oh, right. Sorry. 


That's EU-bureaucratic speak, for it's gives the EU complete financial control over the economies, and by extension, the budgetary policy of the eurozone member states.

Let's do that again;

it's gives the EU complete financial control over the economies, and by extension, the budgetary policy of the eurozone member states

This will be achieved by the imposition of a national requirement to have national budgets that are in balance or in surplus. The European Court of Justice would fine a country up to 0.1% of GDP if this has not been done this a year after ratification. It will create a fiscal union across the eurozone with strict and enforceable fiscal rules and automatic penalties where these rules are not kept. The EU, or more specifically, Germany and France will be calling the shots on the fiscal policies of the EU member states. Countries dancing to this tune will then, and only then, be allowed access funding from the ESM (European Stability Mechanism), a permanent rescue fund to be established in tandem with the ratification of this Treaty. In other words, do with the Germans say and they will (continue to) give you bailout money. Otherwise, it's even more hardship and suffering as your hung out to dry.

In short – it's a classic hobson's choice (with a twist – see below). Austerity or more Austerity?

So, in the specific case of the Irish Republic, why do I advocate a 'NO' vote? The reasons are many and complex. It would be disingenuous of me to reel of the bog standard pisspoor arguments of the anti-Europe faction in Ireland. There is a always a vote 'NO' brigade on the far left of the political spectrum who I really believe only oppose referenda because the government of the day supports and proposes the amendment. The old chestnuts like neutrality and abortion cannot be trotted out either. This is purely financial. 


Here are the main reasons I advocate a 'NO' vote;

1. On the grounds that this is a treaty that will entrench, indeed, embed within an EU legislative framework the austerity measures being endured by Irish people. VOTE 'NO'
2. On the grounds that the process of stripping Ireland of her economic sovereignty, begun by the EU/ECB/IMF in November 2010 would be completed. Our economic independence would be lost to Brussels, or more accurately, Germany. VOTE 'NO'
3. On the basis of (1) and (2) above, it is clear that this is an austerity treaty. VOTE 'NO'
4. Ireland is being forced by the pre-existing bailout deal to pay bondholder debts for banks the state itself now owns. Despite election pledges to the contrary. VOTE 'NO'
5. Any remote possibility Ireland has of renegotiating the terms of the 2010 bailout deal would be gone for good. Actually, they would be reinforced. We would be unable to restructure our own debts. VOTE 'NO'
6. On the basis of (4) and (5) above, Ireland would be locked into a depressive economic cycle that could take generations to break out of. VOTE 'NO'
7. Because our inequitable flat rate household charge is EU/ECB/IMF imposed. VOTE 'NO'
8. Because of all the other sneaky charges Edna & Co have in store (septic tanks, water rates etc.) VOTE 'NO'
9. Because of everything we have learned from the Mahon Tribunal report about our corrupt and rotten political system and politicians. From all parties. Because I am sick of them robbing us blind and laughing at us. VOTE 'NO'

Now here's the real rub, as far as this Treaty and the direction Europe is taking. I describe it as the EU democratic deficit. Because in order to ensure the big players get their way in Europe, through this Treaty, in response to the sovereign debt crisis and to ensure that no one country (especially a small irrelevant like Ireland) can no longer hold up the European project, a la Lisbon, they have rewritten the rules so that our vote, our referenda don't matter anymore.


Let me explain;

The powers that be in the EU (Germany and France that is) have been stumbling around in the dark in response to the EU sovereign debt crisis. Their answer is wrapped up in this Fiscal Compact treaty. And it is EU Fiscal harmonisation. Controlled by Germany of course. This was what they initially wanted to achieve with the proposed EU Constitution. That was dropped like a piece of hot coal when Spain rejected and it looked likely the French people would do the same. The lack of centralised economic control was what undermined the EURO right from the outset. Sure, the Germans had nominal control at that point and as long as the economic outlook (artificially fuelled during the 'boom' years and underpinned by a strong German economy) stayed good things were OK – but the sovereign debt crisis exploded that myth. Having invested so much in the EURO and the European project the EU couldn't afford to let the EURO collapse.

Now, it was OK, to force (frighten, coerce, threaten, take your pick) Ireland into second referendums on Nice & Lisbon. But that would not be done in Spain or France (EU Constitution). And what if some pesky country like Ireland voted down their precious Fiscal Compact? (In any event only Ireland of 27 eurozone members is bound to hold a referendum, the UK has not endorsed the Treaty and will remain outside) Or if Greece fell apart before it came into effect? (Quick, throw some bailout money their way).

The answer was simple. With the stroke of a pen 60 years of the European project was jettisoned. Only 12 countries need ratify the treaty by January 1^st 2013 for it to come into effect. (That's Germany, France, Spain, Holland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Malta & Finland maybe??) The rest can sink or swim. Once the treaty is in effect, you will be cut off quick if you don't play ball (that is surrender to fiscal federalism). Being inside is no guarantee of not being cut adrift or being forced out of the EURO. This is the new EU sponsored democratic deficit. It smacks of arrogance and smugness and a complete disregard for a small nation like ours. So, now I am wondering - is Ireland better off without the EU?

A 'NO' vote from Ireland won't stop this. The EU gerrymandering has ensured this. But let them have it. Ireland, along with our largest trading partner, the UK, (a good enough reason on its own) is better of out of this. Then we would have the opportunity (if not the politicians, but hey, lets do one thing at a time) to map our own way forward out of this economic mire. Iceland and Argentina are good reference points for us here.

There is an alternative. Vote 'NO'.

GOP Primaries - and the race drags on

Well the primaries of Tuesday 13th went pretty much according to expectation. There was no breakthrough for Gingrich. I wonder if the media is right to call it as a he 'breakthrough' he needed. I think his campaign is dead. If he withdraws (and he is under a lot of pressure to do so) to allow Santorum have his straight right v left fight with Romney who would benefit most? The pressure is coming from the Santorum people. But would they gain anything other than a guaranteed runner-up spot?

Even with his victories last week the gap between Santorum and Romney (253-521) widened. Romney is almost halfway there. I expect them to swap victories in Illinois (Mar 20th, Romney) & Louisiana (Mar 24th). A continuation of that trend will continue - Romney winning among the moderate elements and Santorum the more right wing South.

This is the problem for the GOP. Romney may get over the line without making any inroads in the States he will have to carry in November. He scraped by in Ohio. This doesn't augur well. So, what happens in Texas (April 29th) could be decisive. Could it end up a brokered GOP convention (foisted on Romney) where Santorum is pushed onto the ticket for Vice-President? Or is it because of that very possibility that Gingrich is still gasping for air?

Why however, have the Republicans let it come to this anyway? Are they hell bent on losing in November?

U.S. Presidential Election 2012

Well, it's Presidential Election year in the U.S. - a fact that will have escaped the attention of very few no matter how apolitical they may be.

As something of a political junkie this is manna for the likes of me of course. But how well do most people, Americans included, understand the system that elects their President? Well without going through the whole process, skip the primaries, and try to get an understanding of the Electoral College. Check out this video;

I will be keeping tabs on how the race for the White House is going from primaries to conventions right through to the big day itself - Tuesday, November 6th - starting here.

 



 







                                   U.S. Presidential    
Election 2012

The U.S. Presidential Election of 2012, the 57th election for the Office of President is scheduled for Tuesday, Novemeber 6th, 2012. The current Officeholder, Barack Obama, is the 44th U.S. President. He will be the Democrat Party candidate. Who he will face in the general election is still undecided. The Republican Party (GOP) primary selection process rumbles on. As of today, March 12th, however it looks undoubtedly like a straight fight between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

1,144 Delegates are required to secure the nomination at the GOP convention. Romney is on 454 to Santorum's 217. Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker, with 107 delegates is coming under pressure from the Santorum people to exit the race. Certainly, he needs big wins in the Southern State primaries on Tuesday March 14th. But would that be enough? Should he step aside to give the more Right wing Santorum a fair crack at Romney?

For one of the best GOP Delegate Trackers around visit http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

One thing is for sure - the way this Republican primary has panned out is putting pressure on GOP public and private resources to fight the general election - in two key ways.

1. The obvious one is money - this is a very expensive primary campaign. An example - Romney last week began making his first public appeals for money even though his personal wealth is estimated at $250 million.

2. More significantly, will this campaign cause irreversible fractures along the left/right GOP fault-lines? And is that maybe what this year is really about for the GOP? Are they giving up on the White House in order to get their own house in order first?

So a second "Super Tuesday" beckons......

More to follow....

FEMEN - Political protest with a difference

The scale of upheaval worldwide over the last number of years is defining a new worldview for all of us. The scale of the economic collapses, the Arab spring which continues over a year later with blood on Syrian streets.

So how (refreshingly? - is that the right word to use?) to have come across FEMEN.  Founded by Kiev University students Anna Hutsol and Alexandra Shevchenko in 2008, this is a political protest group with a difference. Two differences actually.

Numbering 300+ this female group protest topless. They are 'topless warriors'. Initially and primarily concerned with domestic Ukrainian and women's issues ( "To develop leadership, intellectual and moral qualities of the young women in Ukraine" and "To build up the image of Ukraine, the country with great opportunities for women") they have since tackled international issues e.g Women's rights in Iran, the Catholic Church, Euro 2012 to name but a few, and inspired similar movments in other countries.

Check out http://femen.org/ for full info and updates.

Here is a taste of what to expect;

Or take a look at this;

Brave women of FEMEN, I salute you! I will post updates on FEMEN as I get them.

Sinn Fein Poll upsurge - and the spectre of a referendum

The latest opinion poll published on Sunday 26th February makes for interesting reading;

Has Sinn Fein’s day come? Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (26th February 2012)

The Sunday Times-Behaviour & Attitudes poll (26th February 2012) points to a significant gain in Sinn Fein support relative to that party’s support levels in the previous such poll, with most of this increased support appearing to come at the expense of Fianna Fail – the combined support levels for the government parties increased by one percent relative to the last such poll on December 12 2011. On the basis of these figures, Sinn Fein could expect a significant increase in Dail seat numbers at the next general election, with the Labour Party seats predicted to fall to that party’s lowest levels in decades.  On the basis of this constituency level analysis, party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 63, Labour 11, Fianna Fail 24, Sinn Fein 44, Green Party 0, Others 24.The poll puts national support levels for the main political parties and groupings as follows: Fine Gael 32% (up 2%), Labour 10% (down 1%), Fianna Fail 16% (down 4%), Sinn Fein 25% (up 4%), Green Party 2% (down 1%), Independents and Others 15% (NC). Based on assigning seats on the basis of constituency support estimates (simply using a d’Hondtmethod to determine which party wins the seats), while also taking account of the factors of vote transfers and vote splitting/management (based on vote transfer/management patterns oberved in the February 2011 election),  On the basis of this constituency level analysis, party seat levels would be estimated as follows: Fine Gael 63, Labour 11, Fianna Fail 24, Sinn Fein 44, Green Party 0, Others 24.

http://politicalreform.ie/2012/02/26/has-sinn-feins-day-come-sunday-times-behaviour-attitudes-poll-26th-february-2012/#more-3220

The scenario is fairly stark. Unless the impossible happens and FG/FF coalesce (with a tiny majority) then the impossible will happen. Sinn Fein are the clear kingmakers in the above 'Dail'. So what then?

Do the maths. Something serious has to give.

Opinions anyone?

Yet it gets worse for our dear Taoiseach Edna. Now he is stuck with a referendum that absolutely none of our European partners wanted, and Edna & co. certaintly didn't want.

There are very interesting times ahead.

startledearwig's first post

Welcome to my new blog :)

Do I have anything interesting or relevant to say?

I think so. About a lot of things. I will be keeping busy.

Would others?

Probably not.

The name is inspired by that great love of my life, Dublin GAA, and a famous quote from Pat Gilroy after a particulary bad day in Croke Park.

We were like startled earwigs says Gilroy

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EVER SEEN a startled earwig? You know when you lift a rock and that little brown insect runs around aimlessly in every direction, not sure where he’s going, but just knowing he’s probably a goner. That’s how manager Pat Gilroy described Dublin’s performance in Croke Park yesterday. In the end they didn’t just get a fright, but something that could haunt them for the rest of the lives.

http://irishtimes.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

Thankfully things got a lot lot better.

Enjoy!